Ukraine may have more tanks now than Russia — Forbes

For the first time since the 2022 full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may have a tank advantage over Russian troops. However, only in certain areas of the 800-mile front line.

This was reported by Forbes.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have an advantage in tanks over Russia, but cannot realize their potential

"Our tanks can only operate from closed positions," one Russian blogger complained in his message.

According to him, Russian tanks, which have to fire from camouflaged positions many miles from the front line, are inaccurate howitzers, not the offensive combat vehicles their designers intended. At the same time, Ukrainian tanks are operating "more freely". The whole situation has to do with drones. They dominate.

"The enemy has achieved sufficient scale and diversity in its drones and has perfected the tactics of their use," the Russian military commander said.

He claims that everywhere along the front line where the Ukrainian Armed Forces have managed to deploy two company groups of drones, each with several dozen operators, Russian tanks "simply do not reach the line of attack. They are destroyed by drones many miles away from the line of contact.

According to the blogger, Ukrainian tanks enjoy safer airspace. Russian UAV operations are much weaker due to intense radio jamming by Ukrainian forces and poor quality control in drone production by corrupt Kremlin bureaucrats.

This allows Ukrainian tanks to move right up to the line of contact and attack the Russians directly. The Russian army's only saving grace is its stockpile of shoulder-fired anti-tank missiles.

Ukraine's superiority in tanks, manifested against the backdrop of a protracted war approaching its fourth year, represents a dramatic change in the situation compared to 2022. Back then, Ukrainian brigades "rarely used direct tank fire" due to Russia's significant advantage in artillery and air power. Small drones and drone jammers have not yet changed the battlefield enough to tip the balance in Ukraine's favor.

The exception to this new dynamic is the Kursk region, where powerful Ukrainian forces are fighting to maintain control over 250 square miles of Russian territory they invaded in August 2024. For example, the Kremlin has equipped its regiments and brigades in the Kursk sector with the best fiber-optic drones, which are controlled by signals transmitted through thin cables and cannot be jammed by traditional means.

Russian fiber-optic drones helped stop a Ukrainian attack along the northern edge of the Kursk Gorge on January 5. There is ample evidence that the new jam-resistant drones are capable of engaging Ukrainian tanks, including the best American M1 Abrams and German Leopard 2.

However, as the blogger explained, the Kremlin is only supplying the new drones to "priority sectors," including the Kursk region. This leaves Russian units in other sectors with drones that often do not work, and when they do, they are quickly stopped by the Ukrainian army's electronic warfare systems.

As a result, the Ukrainian Army's advantage in drones turned into an advantage in tanks as the war progressed. However, Russian anti-tank missiles are negating this advantage. But the most important reason why Ukrainian troops cannot use their armor superiority to repel Russia's recent successes may be a persistent infantry shortage.

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its January 12 report that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have begun using new tactics that could reduce Russian combat capabilities.

In particular, the Ukrainian army began attacking tactical command posts and positions of the Russian army near the front line in an attempt to complicate Russian command and control on the battlefield.

We also reported that the enemy had changed its strategy and instead of direct urban fighting in Pokrovsk, it began to advance to the Dnipropetrovs'k region. Acting on this strategy, the Russians want to block an important highway that allows them to supply the Ukrainian group of troops in Donbas, thus forcing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to leave Pokrovsk on their own.